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Edo Election: PDP’s Ighodalo leads Okpebholo, Akpata in pre-election opinion poll

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Ibrahim Ramalan
Ibrahim Ramalan
Ibrahim Ramalan is a graduate of Mass Communications from the Ahmadu Bello University (ABU) Zaria. With nearly a decade-long, active journalism practice, Mr Ramalan has been able to rise from a cub reporter to the exalted position of an editor; first as Arts Editor with the Blueprint Newspapers before resigning in 2019; second and presently as an Associate Editor of the Daily Nigerian online newspaper. He can be reached via ibroramalan@gmail.com, or www.facebook.com/ibrahim.ramalana, or @McRamalan on Twitter.
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tiamin rice
tiamin rice

Ahead of the Edo governorship election, a recent pre-election poll has placed the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, candidate, Asue Ighodalo, in a commanding position.

The survey, conducted by the Africa Polling Institute, API, between August 12th and 16th, 2024, shows Ighodalo leading with 43% of voter support, significantly ahead of his nearest rival,

Senator Monday Okpebholo of the All Progressives Congress, APC, secured 20%, while Barr. Olumide Akpata of the Labour Party, LP, trails behind with 9%.

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In a statement signed by Professor Bell Ihua, Executive Director of API, the poll underscores a pivotal element in the forthcoming election: undecided voters.

However, Professor Bell Ihua, Executive Director of API, in a statement on Wednesday, August 21, 2024, said with 28% of respondents yet to make up their minds, the outcome remains uncertain, leaving room for either of the top contenders to sway these crucial votes.

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The statement said, the poll also explored voter confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, and the election process.

Results reveal mixed feelings: 47% of respondents expressed little to no confidence in INEC’s ability to conduct a free and fair election, while 34% indicated some level of confidence, and 19% expressed complete trust in the electoral body. Despite these concerns, 80% of those surveyed reported feeling secure enough to vote on election day.

Regarding party strength, 42% of respondents believe the PDP has the best chance of winning the election, compared to 22% for the APC and 6% for the LP.

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When asked about their voting intentions, 82% affirmed they would cast their votes, while 9% said they would abstain, and 8% remained uncertain.

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Voters identified several key factors influencing their decision-making, with competence (57%), personality (42%), and experience (36%) ranking highest.

When asked which candidate best embodied these qualities, 43% of respondents named Asue Ighodalo, while 21% favoured Monday Okpebholo, and 7% supported Olumide Akpata.

However, a significant 29% were unsure which candidate aligned most closely with these attributes.

Supporters of Ighodalo cited his capacity, qualifications, and life accomplishments (30%), his economic experience in the corporate sector (24%), and his manifesto and policy plans (15%) as the primary reasons for their choice.

Meanwhile, Okpebholo’s supporters highlighted his affiliation with the ruling APC (30%), his local roots (25%), and his tenure as a serving Senator (19%) as decisive factors.

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Akpata’s backers, though fewer in number, emphasized his association with the Labour Party (30%) and his identification with the “Obedient” movement (27%).

API, an independent, non-profit, and non-partisan opinion research think tank, said the survey involved telephone interviews with 2,687 randomly selected, phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 and above across all 18 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Edo State.

It said the poll was conducted in English, Pidgin English, Benin, Esan, and Etsako languages to ensure comprehensive coverage.

It added that the results are statistically precise within a margin of error of ±5% at a 95% confidence level.

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